![]() ![]() We have carried out new detailed analysis using the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (“MAGICC”) to assess the impacts of these emissions trajectories on the average global surface temperature rise. Delivering the NZE is heavily dependent on all governments working together in an effective and mutually beneficial manner. That could easily be a recipe for trade and other tensions to emerge, and it would militate against net zero emissions being achieved as cost-effectively as possible. The APS highlights the risk of a two-speed world emerging, in which a narrow focus on achieving national net zero pledges in some countries is coupled with limited efforts to prioritise emissions reductions in others, and little attention is given to technological spill-overs or to the scope for working in partnership. ![]() There are large differences in emissions trajectories in the APS: emissions decline by around one-third (or 3.5 Gt) in advanced economies by 2030, but rise by just over 10% (or 2.5 Gt) in emerging market and developing economies. 1 If the world is off course in 2030, it will be extremely difficult to make up the lost ground later. If methane is also counted, then the ambition gap in 2030 would be around 14 Gt CO 2-eq. In the NZE, methane emissions also reduce far more quickly than in the APS. This leaves a 12 Gt “ambition gap” between the APS and the NZE in 2030 that requires countries to go beyond existing pledges to be on course to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. However, realising these pledges in full would fill less than 20% of the total gap between the STEPS and the NZE. The 2.6 Gt difference in emissions between the STEPS and the APS in 2030 highlights the “implementation gap” that exists between announced net zero pledges and the policy frameworks and specific measures that they require: pledges need to be underpinned by strong, credible policies and long-term plans to make them a reality. ![]()
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